Most People Are Completely Misreading XRP Right Now, Says Long-Time Investor

A long-time $XRP holder has argued that most investors are misinterpreting what’s really happening with $XRP’s price and on-chain activity.

In a recent post, Nepentia, who claims to have held $XRP since 2017, pointed to exchange reserve trends as a key indicator that tells a very different story from overall sentiment.

Key Points

$XRP holder says market misreads price action as on-chain data shows distribution, not strength in 2025 rally.

Binance reserves peaked above 3B $XRP before the price topped at $3.66, followed by heavy sell-side distribution.

Reserves have dropped to 2.55B while $XRP fell 69%, then stabilized near 2.75B as selling pressure eased.

Analyst sees possible accumulation phase, with $500B market cap target implying ~$8 $XRP long-term upside.

Distribution, Not Strength at the Top

According to Nepentia’s analysis, $XRP’s rally above $3 in mid-2025 coincided with exchange reserves peaking near 3.05 billion $XRP. To her, that was not strength, but distribution.

Indeed, data from CryptoQuant shows Binance’s $XRP reserves reached their highest level above 3 billion $XRP in September 2025. However, $XRP’s price had already peaked two months earlier, in July, at $3.66.

In other words, large holders were moving $XRP onto exchanges at the time in preparation to sell. This influx of supply into trading venues aligned with the eventual price top.

Source| CryptoQuant

Capitulation Followed the Decline

Meanwhile, between September 2025 and February 2026, exchange reserves dropped sharply to about 2.55 billion $XRP. At the same time, $XRP’s price fell roughly 69.6%, from $3.66 in July 2025 to $1.11 in February 2026.

The decline in reserves during this phase suggests that much of the available supply had already been absorbed.

Stabilization Points to a Turning Phase

Since February 2026, $XRP reserves have stabilized around 2.75 billion, with price hovering near $1.38.

This shift, according to the investor, indicates that selling pressure has cooled significantly. Instead of continued distribution, the data may now reflect a transition toward accumulation.

Falling exchange reserves generally point to reduced sell pressure, while stabilization can signal that accumulation is underway. When combined with a gradual price increase, this can form what traders often interpret as a bullish divergence.

Nepentia suggests that early-stage trends typically begin quietly, often when the majority of market participants remain unconvinced. Rather than focusing on short-term sentiment, the analysis urges holders to watch underlying data flows, which may be hinting at a positive setup for $XRP in the months ahead.

$XRP Long-Term Potential: $500B Market Cap

Amid these on-chain signals, analysts are increasingly discussing $XRP’s long-term potential. Recent commentary by analyst ChiefraT argues $XRP could surpass its previous peak valuation and reach a $500 billion market cap.

At present, $XRP trades around $1.41 with an $87.1 billion market cap, still well below its July 2025 peak of $216.7 billion when it hit $3.66.

ChiefraT says the outlook is supported by a cup-and-handle pattern forming on higher-timeframe charts. Based on its circulating supply of 61.79 billion $XRP, a $500 billion market cap implies a price of about $8.09.

While promising, $XRP still faces immediate resistance at $2 and $3 before proceeding to set a new all-time high.